NCAA Men’s Tennis DI Regionals Simulated 50000 times

I’m sitting in the middle of exams and term projects looking for ways to relax. What better way than to run a Monte Carlo Simulation of each of the men’s regionals, based on my year-end ratings?

So I ran each regional 50,000 times and you can see the results. One of the more intriguing of course is the Nashville Regional, where I could not really account for the home court (and probably outdoor) advantage the Vanderbilt will have over Columbia. That probably sways things a little, I am guessing in the range of 5-15%.

The first number is how many times each team won the entire regional. The second is their probability of coming out of the regional.

BEST FIRST ROUND MATCH-UPS: The Vanderbilt-Virginia Tech match-up looks good, as do the Oklahoma State-Michigan, Memphis-Drake, South Florida-Florida State,  Northwestern-Mississippi, Wake Forest-Louisville, Boise State-USD and Auburn-Harvard. There are a few more, but that’s my quick take.

USC Regional

University of Southern California 45307 90.614%
University of Idaho 122 0.244%
Oklahoma State University 2283 4.566%
University of Michigan 2288 4.576%


Nashville Regional

Vanderbilt University 9815 19.630%
Virginia Tech 7818 15.636%
East Tennessee State University 1917 3.834%
Columbia University 30450 60.900%


Austin Regional

University of Texas 39580 79.160%
Marist College 224 0.448%
University of Louisiana at Lafayette 1140 2.280%
Mississippi State University 9056 18.112%


College Station Regional

California 11649 23.298%
Texas Tech University 5420 10.840%
Alcorn State University 42 0.084%
Texas A&M University 32889 65.778%


Waco Regional

Baylor University 43520 87.040%
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 497 0.994%
Stanford University 3601 7.202%
University of Tulsa 2382 4.764%


Champaign Regional

University of Memphis 6515 13.030%
Drake University 5669 11.338%
Ball State University 374 0.748%
University of Illinois 37442 74.884%


South Bend Regional

University of Notre Dame 35693 71.386%
Univ. of Wisconsin-Green Bay 381 0.762%
Northwestern University 6925 13.850%
University of Mississippi 7001 14.002%


Charlottesville Regional

Penn State University 3489 6.978%
UNC Wilmington 636 1.272%
U.S. Military Academy 104 0.208%
University of Virginia 45771 91.542%


Columbus Regional

Ohio State University 45064 90.128%
Bryant University 72 0.144%
Wake Forest University 2384 4.768%
University of Louisville 2480 4.960%


Gainesville Regional

University of South Florida 7877 15.754%
Florida State University 7821 15.642%
St. John’s University 1541 3.082%
University of Florida 32761 65.522%


Durham Regional

Duke University 35589 71.178%
Winthrop University 606 1.212%
University of Tennessee 12034 24.068%
Elon University 1771 3.542%


UCLA Regional

University of San Diego 2321 4.642%
Boise State University 3591 7.182%
Cal Poly 375 0.750%
UCLA 43713 87.426%


Chapel Hill Regional

North Carolina 40147 80.294%
South Carolina State 233 0.466%
University of South Carolina 8986 17.972%
George Washington University 634 1.268%


Athens Regional

North Carolina State 7642 15.284%
University of Oregon 5472 10.944%
Jacksonville State University 161 0.322%
University of Georgia 36725 73.450%


Lexington Regional

University of Kentucky 32487 64.974%
University of Denver 948 1.896%
Clemson University 9801 19.602%
Purdue University 6764 13.528%


Norman Regional

Auburn University 2313 4.626%
Harvard University 2361 4.722%
Montana 88 0.176%
University of Oklahoma 45238 90.476%

Midwestern State men edge St. Edward’s; advance to Sweet 16

WICHITA FALLS – The St. Edward’s men’s tennis team gave top-seeded Midwestern State all they could handle Sunday afternoon before falling 5-4, in the NCAA DII Men’s Tennis Round of 32 matchup at the MSU Tennis Center.

In doubles action, PEDRO BRONSTRUP and FELIX BAKE took down the 11th-ranked duo of Tomas Grejtak and Ramon Toyos, 8-6 at the number one position. After PATRICK CLYNES and ALEXANDRE BUENO dropped their match at number two doubles to Kacper Boborykin and Kyle Davidson, 8-5, PEDRO BRONSTRUP and FELIX BAKE were engulfed in a dogfight with Midwestern State’s Jarrod Liston and Zack Santagate. The match would go to a tiebreaker where the Hilltoppers prevailed, 8-6. That gave St. Edward’s a 2-1 lead heading into singles.

Bake made it 3-1 as he blitzed #43 Davidson, 6-1, 6-4, at the number two spot. The Mustangs came roaring back taking wins at the numbers three, six and five spots to take a 4-3 lead. After dropping his first set to #27 Boborykin, Clynes rallied to win the match in three sets, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2. That tied the match at 4-4, with Agoglia and Liston still to finish at number four singles. Agoglia won the first set easily but Liston came back to win the final two sets, 1-6, 7-5, 6-4, and clinch the match for Midwestern State.

“It was great to go up 2-1 out of the doubles,” head coach Russell Sterns said. “Every single singles match was strongly contested. After five hours, the match could still have gone either way. We just literally came up one or two points short. Midwestern State had a great home crowd and we wish them the best of luck at Nationals.”

St. Edward’s ends its season with a 15-8 record. After starting the season 1-5, the Hilltoppers were victorious in 14 of their last 17 matches. Along the way, they captured their six-straight Heartland Conference Championship and advanced to the NCAA DII Tournament for the 13th time since moving up to Division II in 1999.

St. Edward’s (Texas) vs Midwestern State
May 04, 2014 at Wichita Falls, Texas
(MSU Tennis Center)
#17 Midwestern State 5, #24 St. Edward’s (Texas) 4

Singles competition
1. PATRICK CLYNES (SEU) def. #27 Kacper Boborykin (MSU) 3-6, 7-5, 6-2
2. FELIX BAKE (SEU) def. #43 Kyle Davidson (MSU) 6-1, 6-4
3. Ramon Toyos (MSU) def. PEDRO BRONSTRUP (SEU) 6-4, 6-4
4. Jarrod Liston (MSU) def. MAXIMO AGOGLIA (SEU) 1-6, 7-5, 6-4
5. Christopher Norrie (MSU) def. ALEXANDRE BUENO (SEU) 6-1, 6-7 (5-8), 6-1
6. Tomas Grejtak (MSU) def. ADRIAN GARZA (SEU) 7-5, 7-5

Doubles competition
1. PEDRO BRONSTRUP/FELIX BAKE (SEU) def. #11 Tomas Grejtak/Ramon Toyos (MSU) 8-6
2. Kacper Boborykin/Kyle Davidson (MSU) def. PATRICK CLYNES/ALEXANDRE BUENO (SEU) 8-5
3. MAXIMO AGOGLIA/ADRIAN GARZA (SEU) def. Jarrod Liston/Zack Santagate (MSU) 9-8 (8-6)

Match Notes:
St. Edward’s (Texas) 15-8; National ranking #24; Regional ranking #3
Midwestern State 18-6; National ranking #17; Regional ranking #1
Order of finish: Doubles (2,1,3); Singles (2,3,6,5,1,4)
NCAA II South Central Region 1 Championship

Hilltoppers move on to NCAA Round of 32 after 5-1 win over Colorado Mesa

WICHITA FALLS – The St. Edward’s men’s tennis team defeated Colorado Mesa, 5-1, Saturday afternoon in its opening-round match of the NCAA South Central Regional Tournament at the MSU Tennis Complex. The victory moves the Hilltoppers on to the Round of 32 where they will face host, Midwestern State.

In doubles action, the duo of PATRICK CLYNES and ALEXANDRE BUENO teamed up to win quickly at number the number two position with an 8-4 win over Mesa’s Blake Demond and Cody Freischlag. After the Mavericks evened the match with a win at number three doubles, St. Edward’s responded with a win at the number one spot. PEDRO BRONSTRUP and FELIX BAKE turned an early deficit into a 9-7 win over Jordan Lyden and Spencer Weinberg.

Ahead 2-1, St. Edward’s needed only three singles victories to clinch the match. They would get wins from MAXIMO AGOGLIA, PATRICK CLYNES, and ADRIAN GARZA. Agoglia made quick work of Demond at the number four spot, 6-2, 6-1. Clynes, playing his best match of the season, took down the 30th-ranked player in Lyden, 6-1, 7-5. Garza clinched the match for the Hilltoppers with his straight-set win over Trevor Brown, 6-1, 6-1.

St. Edward’s will take on Midwestern State on Saturday at the MSU Tennis Complex. First-serve is set for 2 p.m. in the Round of 32 match. The two teams do have some history when it comes to regional tournament play. The Hilltoppers and Mustangs met in a Round of 32 matchup in 2007, in which St. Edward’s won.

St. Edward’s (Texas) vs Colorado Mesa
May 03, 2014 at Wichita Falls, Texas
(MSU Tennis Center)
#24 St. Edward’s (Texas) 5, #45 Colorado Mesa 1
Singles competition
1. PATRICK CLYNES (SEU) def. #30 Jordan Lyden (CMU) 6-1, 7-5
2. Spencer Weinberg (CMU) vs. FELIX BAKE (SEU) 7-6, 4-4, unfinished
3. Andres Garcia-Rojas (CMU) vs. PEDRO BRONSTRUP (SEU) 2-6, 4-1, unfinished
4. MAXIMO AGOGLIA (SEU) def. Blake Demond (CMU) 6-2, 6-1
5. Cody Freischlag (CMU) vs. ALEXANDRE BUENO (SEU) 6-4, 0-6, 1-2, unfinished
6. ADRIAN GARZA (SEU) def. Trevor Brown (CMU) 6-1, 6-1

Doubles competition
1. PEDRO BRONSTRUP/FELIX BAKE (SEU) def. Jordan Lyden/Spencer Weinberg (CMU) 9-7
2. PATRICK CLYNES/ALEXANDRE BUENO (SEU) def. Blake Demond/Cody Freischlag (CMU) 8-4
3. Trevor Brown/Andres Garcia-Rojas (CMU) def. MAXIMO AGOGLIA/ADRIAN GARZA (SEU) 8-6
Match Notes:
St. Edward’s (Texas) 15-7; National ranking #24; Regional ranking #3
Colorado Mesa 13-10; National ranking #45; Regional ranking #6
Order of finish: Doubles (2,3,1); Singles (4,1,6)