NCAA Men’s Tennis DI Regionals Simulated 50000 times

I’m sitting in the middle of exams and term projects looking for ways to relax. What better way than to run a Monte Carlo Simulation of each of the men’s regionals, based on my year-end ratings?

So I ran each regional 50,000 times and you can see the results. One of the more intriguing of course is the Nashville Regional, where I could not really account for the home court (and probably outdoor) advantage the Vanderbilt will have over Columbia. That probably sways things a little, I am guessing in the range of 5-15%.

The first number is how many times each team won the entire regional. The second is their probability of coming out of the regional.

BEST FIRST ROUND MATCH-UPS: The Vanderbilt-Virginia Tech match-up looks good, as do the Oklahoma State-Michigan, Memphis-Drake, South Florida-Florida State,  Northwestern-Mississippi, Wake Forest-Louisville, Boise State-USD and Auburn-Harvard. There are a few more, but that’s my quick take.

USC Regional

University of Southern California 45307 90.614%
University of Idaho 122 0.244%
Oklahoma State University 2283 4.566%
University of Michigan 2288 4.576%

.

Nashville Regional

Vanderbilt University 9815 19.630%
Virginia Tech 7818 15.636%
East Tennessee State University 1917 3.834%
Columbia University 30450 60.900%

.

Austin Regional

University of Texas 39580 79.160%
Marist College 224 0.448%
University of Louisiana at Lafayette 1140 2.280%
Mississippi State University 9056 18.112%

.

College Station Regional

California 11649 23.298%
Texas Tech University 5420 10.840%
Alcorn State University 42 0.084%
Texas A&M University 32889 65.778%

.

Waco Regional

Baylor University 43520 87.040%
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 497 0.994%
Stanford University 3601 7.202%
University of Tulsa 2382 4.764%

.

Champaign Regional

University of Memphis 6515 13.030%
Drake University 5669 11.338%
Ball State University 374 0.748%
University of Illinois 37442 74.884%

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South Bend Regional

University of Notre Dame 35693 71.386%
Univ. of Wisconsin-Green Bay 381 0.762%
Northwestern University 6925 13.850%
University of Mississippi 7001 14.002%

.

Charlottesville Regional

Penn State University 3489 6.978%
UNC Wilmington 636 1.272%
U.S. Military Academy 104 0.208%
University of Virginia 45771 91.542%

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Columbus Regional

Ohio State University 45064 90.128%
Bryant University 72 0.144%
Wake Forest University 2384 4.768%
University of Louisville 2480 4.960%

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Gainesville Regional

University of South Florida 7877 15.754%
Florida State University 7821 15.642%
St. John’s University 1541 3.082%
University of Florida 32761 65.522%

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Durham Regional

Duke University 35589 71.178%
Winthrop University 606 1.212%
University of Tennessee 12034 24.068%
Elon University 1771 3.542%

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UCLA Regional

University of San Diego 2321 4.642%
Boise State University 3591 7.182%
Cal Poly 375 0.750%
UCLA 43713 87.426%

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Chapel Hill Regional

North Carolina 40147 80.294%
South Carolina State 233 0.466%
University of South Carolina 8986 17.972%
George Washington University 634 1.268%

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Athens Regional

North Carolina State 7642 15.284%
University of Oregon 5472 10.944%
Jacksonville State University 161 0.322%
University of Georgia 36725 73.450%

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Lexington Regional

University of Kentucky 32487 64.974%
University of Denver 948 1.896%
Clemson University 9801 19.602%
Purdue University 6764 13.528%

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Norman Regional

Auburn University 2313 4.626%
Harvard University 2361 4.722%
Montana 88 0.176%
University of Oklahoma 45238 90.476%

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