First Round ITA Kickoff Match Probabilities

This is a work in progress and will be updated on the fly. I also want to recognize that I know the HTML really stinks on the probability pages, but I have a real job and have been just too busy. (If someone out there is a CSS and design nut who wants to clean this up for me, please let me know)

Below are links to individual singles match probabilities and overall team probabilities for the first round of the ITA Kickoff Weekend, where Texas teams are included. (at this time I still need to add pods where Lamar and Texas Tech are involved)

TCU-Pacific
http://www.texascollegetennis.com/rankings/matchprobs.php?A1=15600&A2=14800&A3=16500&A4=54200&A5=269600&A6=167600&B1=69200&B2=30800&B3=151600&B4=46300&B5=99700&B6=184400

notes: Not placing Norrie in this one as he is currently on the court in Maui. I dropped Husin for Pacific as well, since he’s currently their lowest-rated player in my system.

Utah State-Wichita State
http://www.texascollegetennis.com/rankings/matchprobs.php?A1=10200&A2=20600&A3=133900&A4=177700&A5=39500&A6=26000&B1=10700&B2=44000&B3=30600&B4=158800&B5=47800&B6=92400

notes: I also dropped a few players from the middle of the roster with low ratings.

Texas-Drake
http://www.texascollegetennis.com/rankings/matchprobs.php?A1=300&A2=38500&A3=5100&A4=2900&A5=16000&A6=11700&B1=17600&B2=86500&B3=110400&B4=189200&B5=84300&B6=72700

Rice-Oregon
http://www.texascollegetennis.com/rankings/matchprobs.php?A1=94700&A2=13100&A3=80300&A4=14000&A5=57100&A6=79200&B1=2100&B2=33900&B3=36600&B4=94100&B5=36000&B6=91000

Baylor-Texas A&M
http://www.texascollegetennis.com/rankings/matchprobs.php?A1=6700&A2=5400&A3=83900&A4=3900&A5=9500&A6=37000&B1=3300&B2=37600&B3=34900&B4=21500&B5=50100&B6=60400

note: Baylor has a history of dropping someone from the lineup. Schretter fits the bill, but that may only be due to a lack of data in my system.

SMU-Ole Miss
http://www.texascollegetennis.com/rankings/matchprobs.php?A1=18000&A2=22700&A3=109400&A4=66200&A5=66500&A6=108800&B1=3000&B2=18500&B3=72000&B4=15000&B5=31700&B6=112200

Texas Tech-Iowa
http://www.texascollegetennis.com/rankings/matchprobs.php?A1=4800&A2=18900&A3=6100&A4=12600&A5=41000&A6=65700&B1=45300&B2=52800&B3=42000&B4=52000&B5=56900&B6=91600

Florida State-Mississippi State
http://www.texascollegetennis.com/rankings/matchprobs.php?A1=13200&A2=24600&A3=51000&A4=22100&A5=28800&A6=41400&B1=700&B2=67500&B3=18200&B4=15900&B5=80200&B6=23400

Boise State-Lamar
http://www.texascollegetennis.com/rankings/matchprobs.php?A1=53300&A2=51800&A3=24900&A4=160200&A5=62200&A6=97500&B1=21400&B2=29400&B3=108700&B4=63000&B5=76000&B6=93800

UCLA-New Mexico
http://www.texascollegetennis.com/rankings/matchprobs.php?A1=1500&A2=10100&A3=38600&A4=2500&A5=57500&A6=17800&B1=74100&B2=25400&B3=38100&B4=84600&B5=79500&B6=143700

notes: players have been dropped from these last four for a variety of reasons. Mostly because there are several who have not even played a match.

I hope to update the singles ratings and then update the team probabilities after the first round results.

This is just the tip of the iceberg of a project that I hope will allow fans and coaches to select lineups and see the expected probabilities…

A New Era of Collegiate Tennis Rankings

We’ve entered a new world of rankings when it comes to college tennis.

The Oracle/ITA Team Rankings are using a new starting format this spring where they only publish the top-25, plus those getting votes. After the computer takes over, they will only be publishing the top-50. (source: 2016-2017 ITA Division I Ranking Manual)

Let me take a few minutes to describe what is going to happen when the rankings are published on February 21.

I think we can all assume that the 16 teams at the indoors will acount for 16 teams in the final human-generated Feb 8 (men)/Feb 15 (women) ballots. What is unique here is that the women still have a ballot-based ranking AFTER the Indoors, while the men don’t.

Where it gets interesting is who the other nine teams on each ballot are that make up the rest of the rankings.

Let’s assume about 25 additional teams get votes for those nine places. Right now only 15 teams essentially get those spots. This means that only 41 teams will be mentioned in the final ballot vote. That would mean 25 ranked teams and 16 receiving votes. (My personal guess is that it won’t be that many)

Now the first computer rankings will be based on best 4 wins and all losses. How many teams will have wins over those 41 teams outside those 41? We know 45 teams will win at least one match at the kickoff weekend. But 15 of those will be wins versus teams probably on the outside.

Every win outside of the 41 will be considered an unranked win (4 points). This means that a majority of the rankings will be four win teams over ‘unranked’ teams, likely on the road with the fewest losses or losses against ranked teams.

That’s quite a few teams with 16 to 17.6 points divided by (four plus the loss points). I am guessning we may some not-so-familiar names in those first computer-generated rankings. We definitely would if they published the full 125.

Now, just to clarify things, I am not suggesting this is bad or these rankings stink. I am just saying you should expect the first rankings to continue to look a little different than we are used to seeing. I even suggest this may be more exciting.

The USTA will also be publishing a top-25 that will be a ballot all season long (beginning after the Indoors). For full disclosure, I am voting in that poll.

All-in-all, this should be exciting for college tennis and hopefully more media outlets will pick up on one or more of these polls.

Now let’s get to some tennis!