Saturday Night Special — men’s projections

It is late Saturday night and it is time to make some projections. The PAC 12 Championship is currently playing, but it really doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things. Sure it’s USC-UCLA for the 3,784th time, but they are going to both be top-8 seeds, so they do not matter to the minutiae of the bracket.

Here are the top-50, assuming UCLA wins (but really won’t affect much)

1    Wake Forest University
2    University of Virginia
3    Ohio State University
4    UCLA
5    University of Southern California
6    TCU
7    Baylor University
8    California
9    North Carolina
10    Oklahoma State University
11    University of Texas
12    University of Georgia
13    Texas A&M University
14    University of Oklahoma
15    University of Florida
16    Stanford University
17    University of Michigan
18    Mississippi State University
19    Georgia Tech
20    University of South Carolina
21    University of South Florida
22    Northwestern University
23    Columbia University
24    University of Oregon
25    University of Illinois
26    Cornell University
27    University of Mississippi
28    Tulane University
29    University of Central Florida
30    University of Wisconsin
31    University of Kentucky
32    Texas Tech University
33    Florida State University
34    University of Memphis
35    Duke University
36    UC Santa Barbara
37    University of Arkansas
38    SMU
39    University of Minnesota
40    Purdue University
41    Rice University
42    Georgia State University
43    University of Louisville
44    Utah State University
45    University of Tennessee
46    Vanderbilt University
47    University of Portland
48    University of San Diego
49    University of Washington
50    Cal Poly

Of course it has been stated that Texas Tech,Tennessee and Vanderbilt cannot advance to the tournament since they are under .500….

The travel grid for the 1-2 seeds hasn’t changed at all since last night.

Travel grid for 1-2 seeds

The grid for third seeds has changed a bit.

Travel Grid for 1-3 seeds

This kind of makes me think Valpo is heading to Ohio State.

Travel Grid 1-4 seeds

Friday Night Seeds and Travel Grids

We are closing down the back stretch. Just two days of tennis remain. So who is in?

If we use all of the current results and project the remaining top seeds as AQ’s, then here it is!

1    Wake Forest University
1    University of Virginia
1    Ohio State University
1    UCLA
1    TCU
1    University of Southern California
1    Baylor University
1    Texas A&M University
1    California
1    North Carolina
1    Oklahoma State University
1    University of Texas
1    University of Georgia
1    University of Oklahoma
1    University of Florida
1    Stanford University
2    University of Michigan
2    Mississippi State University
2    University of South Carolina
2    Georgia Tech
2    University of South Florida
2    Northwestern University
2    Columbia University
2    University of Illinois
2    University of Oregon
2    Cornell University
2    University of Mississippi
2    Tulane University
2    University of Central Florida
2    University of Wisconsin
2    University of Kentucky
2    Florida State University
3    University of Memphis
3    Duke University
3    UC Santa Barbara
3    University of Arkansas
3    SMU
3    University of Minnesota
3    Purdue University
3    Georgia State University
3    Rice University
3    University of Louisville
3    University of Tennessee
3    Utah State University
3    Pepperdine
3    Drake University
3    East Tennessee State University
3    University of Richmond
4    Valparaiso University
4    University of Denver
4    New Mexico State University
4    Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
4    Tennessee Tech University
4    University at Buffalo
4    DePaul University
4    Florida Gulf Coast University
4    University of Idaho
4    UNC Wilmington
4    Monmouth University
4    U.S. Military Academy
4    Presbyterian College
4    Bryant University
4    Florida A&M University
4    Alabama State University

As you know, the first thing we need to do is create travel grids. So here we go:

Travel grid for 1-2 seeds

Travel Grid for 1-3 Seeds

Travel Grid 1-4 seeds

So that’s where we stand. I am sure you can see where a few people are heading. The 1-2’s are amazingly spread out.

Just a few more days and it will all be official.

OU a top-16 and What Happens If Texas Tech Runs The Table

I had someone ask if Texas Tech would be a Top-16 seed and host if they ran the table… well, no. They get about as high as 27th. Here’s the top-50 if Tech wins out and seeds hold, based on the results in so far today.

BTW, the Aggies are very excited to know OU will not be a top-16 seed and travel to College Station. Don’t worry, I hope to create a bracket tomorrow night and give my predictions.

1    Wake Forest University
2    University of Virginia
3    UCLA
4    Ohio State University
5    University of Southern California
6    Baylor University
7    TCU
8    Texas A&M University
9    California
10    North Carolina
11    University of Texas
12    Oklahoma State University
13    University of Georgia
14    University of Oklahoma
15    University of Florida
16    University of Michigan
17    Stanford University
18    University of South Carolina
19    Mississippi State University
20    University of Oregon
21    Georgia Tech
22    University of South Florida
23    Northwestern University
24    University of Illinois
25    Columbia University
26    Cornell University
27    Texas Tech University
28    University of Mississippi
29    University of Kentucky
30    University of Central Florida
31    Tulane University
32    University of Wisconsin
33    Florida State University
34    University of Memphis
35    Duke University
36    UC Santa Barbara
37    University of Arkansas
38    University of Minnesota
39    SMU
40    University of Portland
41    Purdue University
42    Rice University
43    Georgia State University
44    University of Louisville
45    Utah State University
46    Vanderbilt University
47    University of Washington
48    University of Notre Dame
49    University of Tennessee
50    University of Utah

If Everything Goes Chalk This Weekend — men’s top-50

If every conference tournament out there goes chalk, here’s the top-50. Not a whole lot of changes from the Power 5 list, but wanted to verify this. If you want the live feed, remember the link is here, http://texascollegetennis.com/current-mens-ita-rankings/

1 Wake Forest University
2 University of Virginia
3 Ohio State University
4 UCLA
5 TCU
6 University of Southern California
7 Baylor University
8 Oklahoma State University
9 Texas A&M University
10 University of Texas
11 California
12 North Carolina
13 University of Georgia
14 University of Florida
15 University of Michigan
16 University of Oklahoma
17 Stanford University
18 University of South Carolina
19 Mississippi State University
20 University of Oregon
21 Georgia Tech
22 University of South Florida
23 Columbia University
24 Northwestern University
25 University of Illinois
26 Cornell University
27 University of Mississippi
28 University of Kentucky
29 Tulane University
30 University of Central Florida
31 University of Wisconsin
32 University of Memphis
33 Florida State University
34 Duke University
35 SMU
36 UC Santa Barbara
37 University of Arkansas
38 University of Minnesota
39 University of Portland
40 Purdue University
41 Rice University
42 Georgia State University
43 Texas Tech University
44 University of Louisville
45 Utah State University
46 Vanderbilt University
47 University of Washington
48 University of Notre Dame
49 University of Tennessee
50 Harvard University

A Quick Power 5 Chalk Simulation

I decided to run a real quick calculation of what the double-run would look like if the Power 5 Conferences went all chalk this weekend.This is if they go to seed, not ITA ranking.

Of course things will change and there are 13 other conference championships being contested, but here’s what I have.

1 Wake Forest University
2 University of Virginia
3 Ohio State University
4 UCLA
5 TCU
6 University of Southern California
7 Baylor University
8 Oklahoma State University
9 Texas A&M University
10 University of Texas
11 California
12 North Carolina
13 University of Georgia
14 University of Florida
15 University of Michigan
16 University of Oklahoma
17 Stanford University
18 University of South Carolina
19 Mississippi State University
20 University of Oregon
21 Georgia Tech
22 University of South Florida
23 Northwestern University
24 Columbia University
25 University of Illinois
26 Cornell University
27 University of Mississippi
28 University of Kentucky
29 Tulane University
30 University of Wisconsin
31 University of Central Florida
32 University of Memphis
33 Florida State University
34 Duke University
35 SMU
36 University of Arkansas
37 University of Minnesota
38 Purdue University
39 UC Santa Barbara
40 Rice University
41 Georgia State University
42 Texas Tech University
43 University of Louisville
44 Utah State University
45 University of Portland

Heading into the Final Week — men

As we head into the final week of the season, many teams are looking towards their conference tournaments. Bobby is doing a great job updating conference tournament information here, https://www.collegetennistoday.com/events/2017/conference-tournament-central.html. I will focus on what to expect after it is all over.

Just like in basketball, there are one-bid leagues in tennis. Nothing exemplifies this more than the Mountain West this year, where the top see, Utah State is currently riding the bubble. The Aggies sport a win over #4 TCU (on the road) but still remain right around the cutoff point. They know they must win their tournament to assure they make the tournament. Anything short of that and they are leaving it up to fate.

The most precarious team on the bubble in Texas is Texas Tech, but at 11-14, they will not get in unless they win the Big 12 Tournament. From page 20 of the NCAA Pre-Championships Manual, “Teams must have at least a .500 record versus Division I institutions to be considered for an at-large berth.”

The next most interesting thing for Texas teams would be the fate of OU.

If OU is not a top-16 seed, then it seems likely the Sooners will head to College Station. That’s the only non-conference place for them to drive and would fall in line with the way the tournament has treated Big 12 teams and the Aggies since their breakup.

So let’s run through a few worst case scenarios for OU (and A&M), if for no reason other than to torture both fan bases.

First off, if they win Thursday over Texas, they are a seed. No ifs ands or buts about it.

Let’s start with something likely:
Texas d. Oklahoma
Stanford d. Arizona and Oregon but loses to UCLA
Mississippi State d. Vandy and S. Carolina but loses to A&M
Michigan d. Iowa or Penn State (I have them within a spot of each other in the rankings) and Illinois but loses to Ohio State
Georgia Tech d. Duke but falls to Wake Forest

15 Stanford
16 Michigan
17 Oklahoma
18 Mississippi State
19 Georgia Tech

That would probably get OU the 16th seed, as the Sooners have a win over Michigan.

If Oregon defeats Stanford, the Cardinal drops to 17 and Oregon only gets to 19.

So some of these teams need a couple of good wins. Oregon needs to get past Stanford and UCLA. Mississippi needs to beat Texas A&M again. Georgia Tech would need to defeat Wake Forest.

Of course this doesn’t take into effect some of the ‘other’ matches that would help their wins. Let’s take a look at those.

One would be Oklahoma State. For some reason, if Oklahoma State beats Baylor, Stanford drops a bit and gets between Oklahoma and Stanford. This margin is way too close to call though. A Baylor win and OU is directly behind Michigan.

Another would be if Wisconsin beats Northwestern. This one would help Michigan and get them very close to Stanford’s point total. So close that it would make me nervous predicting it exactly.

I will do some more calculations throughout the week, but this is a good start for the week.

Soup to Nuts: FINALLY!

Yes, I did it. I completed the bracket. If you want to understand the entire process, please make sure you read the previous post.

PLACING 2’S AND 3’S

You really do not have to worry too much about conflicts, but there are some at times. The first thing I actually noticed were the limited options for Florida to host schools and how this played in with Georgia. With Georgia Tech only being able to drive to Georgia, that leaves Central Florida for Florida, since they’ve hosted South Florida recently. Also Columbia can only drive to Virginia and even though they were there last year, they are getting sent there again. You have to maximize the driving trips and that really is the only option without losing a line.

As you search for possible GREEN, you check the options then hide the completed rows and columns so that everything is easier to read. You also need to flip between the 2’s and 3’s to make sure you don’t have any conference conflicts.

The next thing you know, you only have the a few remaining. You try to avoid complete across the country flights and when people do have long flights, keep them near major airports. When you can, you try to put the seeds in the right place (or close).

legend (RED = in Conference, GREEN = within 400 miles, PURPLE = been sent there within last two years, AQUA = BINGO!)

THE COMPLETED MATRICES

Complete Proposed 1’s and 2’s travel matrix

Complete Proposed 1’s and 3’s travel matrix

Complete Proposed 1’s and 4’s travel matrix

 

THE FINAL PODS

Wake Forest – Mississippi, Texas Tech, South Carolina State
Ohio State – Tulane, Louisville, Eastern Kentucky
Virginia – Columbia, Richmond, St. Francis
Baylor – South Florida, Rice, Marist
Oklahoma State – Oregon, Drake, Northern Arizona
Southern California – Minnesota, Portland, Denver
UCLA – Illinois, Utah State, New Mexico State
Texas – Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Lamar
TCU – Cornell, Washington, James Madison
Texas A&M – Oklahoma, SMU, East Tennessee State
Georgia – Georgia Tech, North Florida, Presbyterian
California – Northwestern, Memphis, Butler
North Carolina – South Carolina, Georgia State, Navy
Michigan – Kentucky, Notre Dame, Buffalo
Stanford – Mississippi State, Cal Poly, Valparaiso
Florida – Central Florida, Florida State, Alabama State

A FEW FINAL THOUGHTS

Oklahoma heading to College Station is pretty much a given if the Sooners cannot win at least one match (and I think they need maybe two to guarantee hosting) down the stretch. They get Andrew Harris back and play Oklahoma State at home in 10 days. They also get to host the Big 12 Championships. My guess is they will get Baylor or Texas in the first round. If they beat OSU, they would tentatively move into the top-14. Of course that means that nobody else in that range gets another key win. Two wins and they are almost assured to host a pod.

other pods of interest that should bring some fan support will be Georgia Tech at Georgia, Mississippi State at Stanford, Oregon at Oklahoma State (could be tight), Illinois at UCLA, Kentucky at Michigan and the whole Florida pod

Soup to Nuts: Let’s start over and make a new bracket

For a variety of reasons, I stopped my series on “How to Build a Bracket”. The biggest was that the data was getting stale. Today I look to remedy that by creating an entire bracket in one day.

Strap on those seat belts because this first part may be a little fast.

Step 1 – Teams. We need teams. Who are the AQ’s and who are the rest? Methodology. Since we don’t have actual conference champions just yet, we are going with the highest-ranked teams. If they are outside the top-50, I am using how they appear in my extended ‘unpublished’ rankings (I can play this game too, ITA!). One caveat — I will also check the standing to make sure I am not blatantly missing anyone.

The AQs

AQ estimate as of 04-10-17

So now that we have the teams, let’s lay out the seeds.

Of the 31 AQ’s, only nine are within the top-40. So we take the top-42 in the ITA, plus the 22 from the AQ list and we are full. Of course Utah State is 42 and University of Portland is 43, so #44 Texas Tech sneaks in.

The Seeds

Seed estimate as of 04-10-17

Next Stop – Check the corners

What I mean by this is let’s check the check the 8-9 seed, the 16-17 and the 32-33. Have they played each other and should they swap spots? I really do not care about too many other seeding locations right now. Although this may change later this week or next, it has no effect right now and we can move on.

Travel Grids

legend (RED = in Conference, GREEN = within 400 miles, PURPLE = been sent there within last two years, AQUA = BINGO!)

Travel Distances for Projected 1’s and 2’s

Travel Distances for Projected 1’s and 3’s

Travel Distances for Projected 1’s and 4’s

So I’ve placed the fours. A variety of reasons for where they went, but for the most part using the rules of whether they played there recently, are they within 400 miles and then for the ones that travel to the West Coast, is there a somewhat major airport nearby.

Wake Forest – South Carolina State
Ohio State – Eastern Kentucky
Virginia – St. Francis
Baylor – Marist
Oklahoma State – Northern Arizona
Southern California – Denver
UCLA – NM State
Texas – Lamar
TCU – James Madison
Texas A&M – East Tennessee St
Georgia – Presbyterian
California – Butler
North Carolina – Navy
Michigan – Buffalo
Stanford – Valporaiso
Florida – Alabama State

I will post the completely finished pods shortly. I figured this was enough for one reading…

Women’s Top-50 Line-up Data 4-3-17

I also updated the line-up data for the women last night. I have been on the road and visiting family so it has taken me a little longer to get this posted that I would have liked, but here it finally is.

Legend
S1 = singles line #1
S2 = singles line #2
S3 = singles line #3
S4 = singles line #4
S5 = singles line #5
S6 = singles line #6
D1 = doubles line #1
D2 = doubles line #2
D1 = doubles line #3
3+S = How many times won-lost at least 3 singles lines
DUBS = Record winning doubles point
T50S+ = W/L of at least 3 singles v. top-50
T50D = doubles record v top-50

ITA Women’s Top-50 Lineup Data (4-3-17)

Men’s Lineup Data 4-3-17

It has been two weeks, so it was time to update line-up data for the ITA men’s Top-50. This was run this afternoon, so any matches currently in the ITA database are fair game. Both Texas (5-9) and Texas A&M (4-11) are the only two schools in the current ITA top-8 who have a losing record in doubles points against other top-50 teams. Obviously both teams make up for this with stellar singles records (11-3, 14-1) but that is to be expected of the teams at the top. When it comes down to the NCAA Tournament, they will both have to improve to have any chance to make the Elite Eight. Luckily for both, that’s still a month away and there’s a lot of tennis to be played.

Legend
S1 = singles line #1
S2 = singles line #2
S3 = singles line #3
S4 = singles line #4
S5 = singles line #5
S6 = singles line #6
D1 = doubles line #1
D2 = doubles line #2
D1 = doubles line #3
3+S = How many times won-lost at least 3 singles lines
DUBS = Record winning doubles point
T50S+ = W/L of at least 3 singles v. top-50
T50D = doubles record v top-50

Men’s Top-50 Lineup Data (4-3-17)