OU a top-16 and What Happens If Texas Tech Runs The Table

I had someone ask if Texas Tech would be a Top-16 seed and host if they ran the table… well, no. They get about as high as 27th. Here’s the top-50 if Tech wins out and seeds hold, based on the results in so far today.

BTW, the Aggies are very excited to know OU will not be a top-16 seed and travel to College Station. Don’t worry, I hope to create a bracket tomorrow night and give my predictions.

1    Wake Forest University
2    University of Virginia
3    UCLA
4    Ohio State University
5    University of Southern California
6    Baylor University
7    TCU
8    Texas A&M University
9    California
10    North Carolina
11    University of Texas
12    Oklahoma State University
13    University of Georgia
14    University of Oklahoma
15    University of Florida
16    University of Michigan
17    Stanford University
18    University of South Carolina
19    Mississippi State University
20    University of Oregon
21    Georgia Tech
22    University of South Florida
23    Northwestern University
24    University of Illinois
25    Columbia University
26    Cornell University
27    Texas Tech University
28    University of Mississippi
29    University of Kentucky
30    University of Central Florida
31    Tulane University
32    University of Wisconsin
33    Florida State University
34    University of Memphis
35    Duke University
36    UC Santa Barbara
37    University of Arkansas
38    University of Minnesota
39    SMU
40    University of Portland
41    Purdue University
42    Rice University
43    Georgia State University
44    University of Louisville
45    Utah State University
46    Vanderbilt University
47    University of Washington
48    University of Notre Dame
49    University of Tennessee
50    University of Utah

If Everything Goes Chalk This Weekend — men’s top-50

If every conference tournament out there goes chalk, here’s the top-50. Not a whole lot of changes from the Power 5 list, but wanted to verify this. If you want the live feed, remember the link is here, http://texascollegetennis.com/current-mens-ita-rankings/

1 Wake Forest University
2 University of Virginia
3 Ohio State University
4 UCLA
5 TCU
6 University of Southern California
7 Baylor University
8 Oklahoma State University
9 Texas A&M University
10 University of Texas
11 California
12 North Carolina
13 University of Georgia
14 University of Florida
15 University of Michigan
16 University of Oklahoma
17 Stanford University
18 University of South Carolina
19 Mississippi State University
20 University of Oregon
21 Georgia Tech
22 University of South Florida
23 Columbia University
24 Northwestern University
25 University of Illinois
26 Cornell University
27 University of Mississippi
28 University of Kentucky
29 Tulane University
30 University of Central Florida
31 University of Wisconsin
32 University of Memphis
33 Florida State University
34 Duke University
35 SMU
36 UC Santa Barbara
37 University of Arkansas
38 University of Minnesota
39 University of Portland
40 Purdue University
41 Rice University
42 Georgia State University
43 Texas Tech University
44 University of Louisville
45 Utah State University
46 Vanderbilt University
47 University of Washington
48 University of Notre Dame
49 University of Tennessee
50 Harvard University

A Quick Power 5 Chalk Simulation

I decided to run a real quick calculation of what the double-run would look like if the Power 5 Conferences went all chalk this weekend.This is if they go to seed, not ITA ranking.

Of course things will change and there are 13 other conference championships being contested, but here’s what I have.

1 Wake Forest University
2 University of Virginia
3 Ohio State University
4 UCLA
5 TCU
6 University of Southern California
7 Baylor University
8 Oklahoma State University
9 Texas A&M University
10 University of Texas
11 California
12 North Carolina
13 University of Georgia
14 University of Florida
15 University of Michigan
16 University of Oklahoma
17 Stanford University
18 University of South Carolina
19 Mississippi State University
20 University of Oregon
21 Georgia Tech
22 University of South Florida
23 Northwestern University
24 Columbia University
25 University of Illinois
26 Cornell University
27 University of Mississippi
28 University of Kentucky
29 Tulane University
30 University of Wisconsin
31 University of Central Florida
32 University of Memphis
33 Florida State University
34 Duke University
35 SMU
36 University of Arkansas
37 University of Minnesota
38 Purdue University
39 UC Santa Barbara
40 Rice University
41 Georgia State University
42 Texas Tech University
43 University of Louisville
44 Utah State University
45 University of Portland

Heading into the Final Week — men

As we head into the final week of the season, many teams are looking towards their conference tournaments. Bobby is doing a great job updating conference tournament information here, https://www.collegetennistoday.com/events/2017/conference-tournament-central.html. I will focus on what to expect after it is all over.

Just like in basketball, there are one-bid leagues in tennis. Nothing exemplifies this more than the Mountain West this year, where the top see, Utah State is currently riding the bubble. The Aggies sport a win over #4 TCU (on the road) but still remain right around the cutoff point. They know they must win their tournament to assure they make the tournament. Anything short of that and they are leaving it up to fate.

The most precarious team on the bubble in Texas is Texas Tech, but at 11-14, they will not get in unless they win the Big 12 Tournament. From page 20 of the NCAA Pre-Championships Manual, “Teams must have at least a .500 record versus Division I institutions to be considered for an at-large berth.”

The next most interesting thing for Texas teams would be the fate of OU.

If OU is not a top-16 seed, then it seems likely the Sooners will head to College Station. That’s the only non-conference place for them to drive and would fall in line with the way the tournament has treated Big 12 teams and the Aggies since their breakup.

So let’s run through a few worst case scenarios for OU (and A&M), if for no reason other than to torture both fan bases.

First off, if they win Thursday over Texas, they are a seed. No ifs ands or buts about it.

Let’s start with something likely:
Texas d. Oklahoma
Stanford d. Arizona and Oregon but loses to UCLA
Mississippi State d. Vandy and S. Carolina but loses to A&M
Michigan d. Iowa or Penn State (I have them within a spot of each other in the rankings) and Illinois but loses to Ohio State
Georgia Tech d. Duke but falls to Wake Forest

15 Stanford
16 Michigan
17 Oklahoma
18 Mississippi State
19 Georgia Tech

That would probably get OU the 16th seed, as the Sooners have a win over Michigan.

If Oregon defeats Stanford, the Cardinal drops to 17 and Oregon only gets to 19.

So some of these teams need a couple of good wins. Oregon needs to get past Stanford and UCLA. Mississippi needs to beat Texas A&M again. Georgia Tech would need to defeat Wake Forest.

Of course this doesn’t take into effect some of the ‘other’ matches that would help their wins. Let’s take a look at those.

One would be Oklahoma State. For some reason, if Oklahoma State beats Baylor, Stanford drops a bit and gets between Oklahoma and Stanford. This margin is way too close to call though. A Baylor win and OU is directly behind Michigan.

Another would be if Wisconsin beats Northwestern. This one would help Michigan and get them very close to Stanford’s point total. So close that it would make me nervous predicting it exactly.

I will do some more calculations throughout the week, but this is a good start for the week.

Soup to Nuts: FINALLY!

Yes, I did it. I completed the bracket. If you want to understand the entire process, please make sure you read the previous post.

PLACING 2’S AND 3’S

You really do not have to worry too much about conflicts, but there are some at times. The first thing I actually noticed were the limited options for Florida to host schools and how this played in with Georgia. With Georgia Tech only being able to drive to Georgia, that leaves Central Florida for Florida, since they’ve hosted South Florida recently. Also Columbia can only drive to Virginia and even though they were there last year, they are getting sent there again. You have to maximize the driving trips and that really is the only option without losing a line.

As you search for possible GREEN, you check the options then hide the completed rows and columns so that everything is easier to read. You also need to flip between the 2’s and 3’s to make sure you don’t have any conference conflicts.

The next thing you know, you only have the a few remaining. You try to avoid complete across the country flights and when people do have long flights, keep them near major airports. When you can, you try to put the seeds in the right place (or close).

legend (RED = in Conference, GREEN = within 400 miles, PURPLE = been sent there within last two years, AQUA = BINGO!)

THE COMPLETED MATRICES

Complete Proposed 1’s and 2’s travel matrix

Complete Proposed 1’s and 3’s travel matrix

Complete Proposed 1’s and 4’s travel matrix

 

THE FINAL PODS

Wake Forest – Mississippi, Texas Tech, South Carolina State
Ohio State – Tulane, Louisville, Eastern Kentucky
Virginia – Columbia, Richmond, St. Francis
Baylor – South Florida, Rice, Marist
Oklahoma State – Oregon, Drake, Northern Arizona
Southern California – Minnesota, Portland, Denver
UCLA – Illinois, Utah State, New Mexico State
Texas – Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Lamar
TCU – Cornell, Washington, James Madison
Texas A&M – Oklahoma, SMU, East Tennessee State
Georgia – Georgia Tech, North Florida, Presbyterian
California – Northwestern, Memphis, Butler
North Carolina – South Carolina, Georgia State, Navy
Michigan – Kentucky, Notre Dame, Buffalo
Stanford – Mississippi State, Cal Poly, Valparaiso
Florida – Central Florida, Florida State, Alabama State

A FEW FINAL THOUGHTS

Oklahoma heading to College Station is pretty much a given if the Sooners cannot win at least one match (and I think they need maybe two to guarantee hosting) down the stretch. They get Andrew Harris back and play Oklahoma State at home in 10 days. They also get to host the Big 12 Championships. My guess is they will get Baylor or Texas in the first round. If they beat OSU, they would tentatively move into the top-14. Of course that means that nobody else in that range gets another key win. Two wins and they are almost assured to host a pod.

other pods of interest that should bring some fan support will be Georgia Tech at Georgia, Mississippi State at Stanford, Oregon at Oklahoma State (could be tight), Illinois at UCLA, Kentucky at Michigan and the whole Florida pod

Soup to Nuts: Let’s start over and make a new bracket

For a variety of reasons, I stopped my series on “How to Build a Bracket”. The biggest was that the data was getting stale. Today I look to remedy that by creating an entire bracket in one day.

Strap on those seat belts because this first part may be a little fast.

Step 1 – Teams. We need teams. Who are the AQ’s and who are the rest? Methodology. Since we don’t have actual conference champions just yet, we are going with the highest-ranked teams. If they are outside the top-50, I am using how they appear in my extended ‘unpublished’ rankings (I can play this game too, ITA!). One caveat — I will also check the standing to make sure I am not blatantly missing anyone.

The AQs

AQ estimate as of 04-10-17

So now that we have the teams, let’s lay out the seeds.

Of the 31 AQ’s, only nine are within the top-40. So we take the top-42 in the ITA, plus the 22 from the AQ list and we are full. Of course Utah State is 42 and University of Portland is 43, so #44 Texas Tech sneaks in.

The Seeds

Seed estimate as of 04-10-17

Next Stop – Check the corners

What I mean by this is let’s check the check the 8-9 seed, the 16-17 and the 32-33. Have they played each other and should they swap spots? I really do not care about too many other seeding locations right now. Although this may change later this week or next, it has no effect right now and we can move on.

Travel Grids

legend (RED = in Conference, GREEN = within 400 miles, PURPLE = been sent there within last two years, AQUA = BINGO!)

Travel Distances for Projected 1’s and 2’s

Travel Distances for Projected 1’s and 3’s

Travel Distances for Projected 1’s and 4’s

So I’ve placed the fours. A variety of reasons for where they went, but for the most part using the rules of whether they played there recently, are they within 400 miles and then for the ones that travel to the West Coast, is there a somewhat major airport nearby.

Wake Forest – South Carolina State
Ohio State – Eastern Kentucky
Virginia – St. Francis
Baylor – Marist
Oklahoma State – Northern Arizona
Southern California – Denver
UCLA – NM State
Texas – Lamar
TCU – James Madison
Texas A&M – East Tennessee St
Georgia – Presbyterian
California – Butler
North Carolina – Navy
Michigan – Buffalo
Stanford – Valporaiso
Florida – Alabama State

I will post the completely finished pods shortly. I figured this was enough for one reading…

Women’s Top-50 Line-up Data 4-3-17

I also updated the line-up data for the women last night. I have been on the road and visiting family so it has taken me a little longer to get this posted that I would have liked, but here it finally is.

Legend
S1 = singles line #1
S2 = singles line #2
S3 = singles line #3
S4 = singles line #4
S5 = singles line #5
S6 = singles line #6
D1 = doubles line #1
D2 = doubles line #2
D1 = doubles line #3
3+S = How many times won-lost at least 3 singles lines
DUBS = Record winning doubles point
T50S+ = W/L of at least 3 singles v. top-50
T50D = doubles record v top-50

ITA Women’s Top-50 Lineup Data (4-3-17)

Men’s Lineup Data 4-3-17

It has been two weeks, so it was time to update line-up data for the ITA men’s Top-50. This was run this afternoon, so any matches currently in the ITA database are fair game. Both Texas (5-9) and Texas A&M (4-11) are the only two schools in the current ITA top-8 who have a losing record in doubles points against other top-50 teams. Obviously both teams make up for this with stellar singles records (11-3, 14-1) but that is to be expected of the teams at the top. When it comes down to the NCAA Tournament, they will both have to improve to have any chance to make the Elite Eight. Luckily for both, that’s still a month away and there’s a lot of tennis to be played.

Legend
S1 = singles line #1
S2 = singles line #2
S3 = singles line #3
S4 = singles line #4
S5 = singles line #5
S6 = singles line #6
D1 = doubles line #1
D2 = doubles line #2
D1 = doubles line #3
3+S = How many times won-lost at least 3 singles lines
DUBS = Record winning doubles point
T50S+ = W/L of at least 3 singles v. top-50
T50D = doubles record v top-50

Men’s Top-50 Lineup Data (4-3-17)

Men’s Top-200 March 24 2017

Here’s my new men’s rankings as of matches entered by Friday at noon.

Link to last week’s rankings with information on how these are calculated.

 

RK PLAYER TEAM REC
1 Petros Chrysochos Wake Forest University 22-3
2 Mikael Torpegaard Ohio State University 23-2
3 Cameron Norrie TCU 13-1
4 Brandon Holt University of Southern California 28-7
5 Nuno Borges Mississippi State University 25-5
6 Christopher Eubanks Georgia Tech 17-4
7 Christian Sigsgaard University of Texas 23-12
8 Mike Redlicki University of Arkansas 23-8
9 Juan Benitez Baylor University 18-3
10 Hugo Di Feo Ohio State University 17-5
11 Arthur Rinderknech Texas A&M University 19-6
12 Alfredo Perez University of Florida 17-8
13 Thomas Laurent University of Oregon 24-3
14 Florian Lakat California 17-9
15 Tom Fawcett Stanford University 11-6
16 Skander Mansouri Wake Forest University 21-8
17 Billy Griffith California 20-5
18 Aron Hiltzik University of Illinois 16-4
19 Gage Brymer UCLA 19-8
20 Thai-Son Kwiatkowski University of Virginia 14-3
21 Herkko Pollanen Ohio State University 17-7
22 Peter Bertran University of South Florida 26-8
23 Strong Kirchheimer Northwestern University 19-10
24 Ronnie Schneider North Carolina 18-7
25 Aleks Vukic University of Illinois 12-2
26 Christian Seraphim Wake Forest University 22-8
27 Andre Goransson California 21-9
28 Constantin Schmitz Tulane University 19-4
29 Martin Redlicki UCLA 19-6
30 Jose Salazar University of Arkansas 23-6
31 Yuya Ito University of Texas 23-10
32 Maxime Tchoutakian Baylor University 22-7
33 Julian Cash Oklahoma State University 16-5
34 Wayne Montgomery University of Georgia 21-15
35 Robert Kelly North Carolina 16-5
36 Harrison Scott University of Texas 25-6
37 William Bushamuka University of Kentucky 16-5
38 Cameron Klinger Vanderbilt University 24-6
39 Gustav Hansson University of Mississippi 16-9
40 JC Aragone University of Virginia 22-6
41 Timo Stodder University of Tennessee 22-10
42 Emil Reinberg University of Georgia 27-13
43 Alberto Barroso-Campos University of South Florida 21-6
44 Colin Sinclair Cornell University 24-4
45 William Blumberg North Carolina 9-2
46 Alex Rybakov TCU 12-1
47 Jacob Dunbar University of Richmond 23-5
48 Nicolas Alvarez Duke University 9-5
49 Jimmy Bendeck Baylor University 20-11
50 Jolan Cailleau Texas Tech University 18-12
51 Joseph Di Giulio UCLA 15-4
52 Alex Keyser Columbia University 22-10
53 Connor Curry Texas Tech University 19-10
54 Florin Bragusi University of Oklahoma 17-6
55 Gabriel Friedrich University of South Carolina 20-11
56 Nick Stachowiak Duke University 26-7
57 Borna Gojo Wake Forest University 12-2
58 Henrik Wiersholm University of Virginia 10-0
59 Filip Bergevi California 15-8
60 Bjorn Thomson Texas Tech University 20-4
61 Adam Moundir Old Dominion University 16-6
62 Vinny Gillespie Drake University 18-5
63 Josh Hagar University of Notre Dame 15-10
64 Spencer Papa University of Oklahoma 16-11
65 Lukas Finzelberg Oklahoma State University 14-9
66 Dylan King Yale University 27-4
67 Mazen Osama University of Alabama 17-9
68 David Biosca East Tennessee State University 15-7
69 Jordi Arconada Texas A&M University 14-4
70 Daniel Valent Vanderbilt University 19-12
71 Corey Pang Cal Poly 20-7
72 Rob Bellamy University of Southern California 20-6
73 Ryotaro Matsumura University of Kentucky 16-7
74 Shawn Hadavi Columbia University 22-10
75 Andrew Li Georgia Tech 16-9
76 Filip Vittek University of San Diego 14-6
77 Konrad Zieba Northwestern University 14-6
78 Nathan Ponwith University of Georgia 17-7
79 Or Ram-Harel University of Tulsa 10-9
80 Josh Pompan University of Pennsylvania 27-7
81 Nick Horton North Carolina State 16-10
82 Henry Patten UNC Asheville 25-4
83 Victor Pham Columbia University 16-10
84 Jack Jaede University of Southern California 18-5
85 Hady Habib Texas A&M University 15-4
86 Sasha Gozun University of South Florida 13-9
87 Harrison O’Keefe University of South Carolina 23-9
88 Rodrigo Banzer University of Texas 20-7
89 Alexis Galarneau North Carolina State 18-7
90 Tyler Lu Yale University 20-6
91 Ben Donovan Cal Poly 22-10
92 Niclas Braun Mississippi State University 15-6
93 Piotr Lomacki University of Miami-Florida 13-7
94 Guillermo Nuñez TCU 13-4
95 Alex Ghilea University of Oklahoma 16-6
96 Parker Wynn University of Louisville 28-8
97 Arjun Kadhe Oklahoma State University 15-6
98 Johannes Schretter Baylor University 14-1
99 Lucas Gerch Oklahoma State University 14-3
100 Michail Pervolarakis University of Portland 16-5
101 Walker Duncan University of Georgia 21-13
102 Johannes Ingildsen University of Florida 21-9
103 Michael Weindl Old Dominion University 17-7
104 Leonardo Telles University of Texas 18-7
105 Catalin Mateas Duke University 17-12
106 Jerry Lopez TCU 15-5
107 Logan Smith University of Southern California 18-13
108 Jackie Tang Columbia University 16-7
109 Mitch Stewart University of Washington 11-6
110 Joshua Peck North Carolina 11-4
111 Aziz Dougaz Florida State University 11-6
112 Justin Roberts University of South Florida 16-9
113 Kyle Mautner University of Pennsylvania 17-11
114 Jathan Malik University of Michigan 13-6
115 Jack Findel-Hawkins University of North Florida 12-14
116 Andrew Harris University of Oklahoma 4-4
117 Haru Inoue Wichita State University 17-8
118 Baker Newman Vanderbilt University 20-11
119 Beck Pennington University of Kentucky 21-8
120 Kyle Seelig Ohio State University 17-5
121 Matic Spec University of Minnesota 16-10
122 McClain Kessler University of Florida 16-7
123 Jan Zielinski University of Georgia 23-8
124 Jordan Belga University of Florida 16-9
125 Myles Schalet University of Michigan 16-6
126 Ryan Peniston University of Memphis 16-8
127 Julius Tverijonas George Washington University 21-8
128 Adam Steryous Furman University 18-6
129 Strahinja Rakic Mississippi State University 15-7
130 Morgan Mays UC Santa Barbara 15-8
131 Spencer Furman Duke University 17-5
132 Juan Cruz Soria University of South Alabama 25-6
133 Thibault Cancel University of Alabama 15-10
134 Andrew Schafer University of South Carolina 23-9
135 Jordan Daigle LSU 9-7
136 Sebastian Rey Tulane University 14-8
137 Andrew Watson University of Memphis 19-7
138 Elliott Orkin University of Florida 15-11
139 Justin Butsch LSU 18-8
140 Nils Ellefsen University of Kentucky 18-8
141 Fabian Fallert University of Mississippi 15-6
142 Eric Rutledge Rice University 17-7
143 Felix Corwin University of Minnesota 16-8
144 Scott Webster Appalachian State University 17-7
145 Dominik Star√Ω Northwestern University 14-7
146 Chris Vrabel Cornell University 19-8
147 Tuki Jacobs University of South Alabama 20-5
148 Stefan Milicevic University of Minnesota 16-4
149 Sameer Kumar Stanford University 12-8
150 Felipe Sarrasague Elon University 17-8
151 Aleksandar Kovacevic University of Illinois 14-8
152 Chema Carranza University of Wisconsin 21-7
153 Robert Herrera East Tennessee State University 15-5
154 Thibault Forget University of Southern California 21-12
155 Jefta Kecic University of North Florida 13-11
156 Alex Lebedev University of Notre Dame 17-12
157 Trey Yates University of Kentucky 17-10
158 Runhao Hua University of Michigan 11-3
159 Jhonathan Gonzalez University of Texas at Arlington 19-5
160 Danny Kerznerman University of Central Florida 16-3
161 Diego Quiroz Winthrop University 18-7
162 Jamie Malik Rice University 15-4
163 Josef Dodridge University of Wisconsin 20-12
164 Jose Gracia Florida State University 11-7
165 JJ Wolf Ohio State University 6-1
166 Alexandre Ribeiro Virginia Tech 13-10
167 Gergely Madarasz Purdue University 11-9
168 Riley Smith University of Southern California 19-6
169 Javier Jover Maestre Old Dominion University 18-6
170 Alex Knight University of Michigan 12-8
171 Charlie Broom Dartmouth College 18-5
172 Chase Perez-Blanco University of Florida 13-12
173 Cole Fiegel Georgia Tech 20-8
174 Aleksandre Bakshi Texas A&M University 14-7
175 AJ Catanzariti Texas A&M University 9-10
176 Valentin Vacherot Texas A&M University 14-2
177 Martin Joyce Ohio State University 11-7
178 Ewan Moore Tulane University 10-3
179 Korey Lovett University of Central Florida 11-5
180 Ronald Slobodchikov SMU 7-6
181 Tyler Schick Tulane University 17-5
182 Alexander Ritschard University of Virginia 12-1
183 Mathieu Garcia University of Portland 20-7
184 Enzo Wallart University of Kentucky 13-8
185 Maximillian Scholl Gardner-Webb University 21-5
186 Vadym Kalyuzhnyy University of South Florida 19-9
187 Connor Thompson UNC Greensboro 15-8
188 Jeffrey Schorsch Valparaiso University 17-5
189 Nicolas Moreno de Alboran UC Santa Barbara 15-12
190 Alan Gadjiev Wake Forest University 18-9
191 Guilherme Hadlich Pepperdine 13-10
192 Bjorn Hoffmann California 20-12
193 Stefan Menichella Pepperdine 13-6
194 Euan McIntosh Fresno State 14-8
195 Logan Staggs UCLA 11-4
196 Jai Corbett Virginia Tech 11-10
197 Kai Wehnelt Utah State University 19-14
198 TJ Pura Duke University 21-9
199 Jack Swindells Utah State University 20-12
200 Miguel Diaz University of the Pacific-California 15-9

Women’s Lineup Data with Top-50 Info Added

I have also completed the women’s data for the top-50, including the new addition of records against top-50 opponents.

Specifically, I have added two column at the end to display the 3+S and DUBS for teams versus top-50 opponents. This was run very early Wednesday morning and includes any matches input by that that.

Legend
S1 = singles line #1
S2 = singles line #2
S3 = singles line #3
S4 = singles line #4
S5 = singles line #5
S6 = singles line #6
D1 = doubles line #1
D2 = doubles line #2
D1 = doubles line #3
3+S = How many times won-lost at least 3 singles lines
DUBS = Record winning doubles point
T50S+ = W/L of at least 3 singles v. top-50
T50D = doubles record v top-50

Updated Women’s Lineup Data 3/20